The Elo has landed

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robmoss2k
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The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:54 pm

WARNING: WORK IN PROGRESS BUT COMING ALONG NICELY

http://www.robmoss2k.co.uk:8000/sap/bc/ ... efault.htm

I got a bit bored, so I decided to knock some Elo stuff together. It will take a SPORT XML file as input, match players up against the player list, and assign the results. I've got rankings for everything I can think of - so per-event rankings, in addition to overall rankings, singles, doubles, men's, women's, juniors, seniors (the latter four only take into account qualifying matches between British players - so if Giuliano Bentivoglio plays with Rob, that won't count towards his men's ranking, and any match he plays against non-British or female opposition won't count either - likewise for women's/juniors/seniors).

Currently, the weightings assume that Cat E has fewer than 8 players, D fewer than 16, C fewer than 32, B fewer than 64, A fewer than 128, A+ fewer than 256 and A++ at least 256. I will need to get a list of the categories each tournament has been assigned - the code is written to pick it up once it's maintained.

Furthermore, a date range can be applied, so we can go back as far as we want, or we can just do a Player of the Year style set of rankings, of which both are supplied below.

I'm missing a LOT of tournaments, and if you have a SPORT file, or a set of full charts, I could do with it. The tournaments listed below with asterisks against them are the ones I have. If they're missing an asterisk I need them. Thanks to Alex Millington-Marsden, Shovo and Joe for what I have so far:

Northwich Tornado Open 1999
Oxford Tornado Open 1999
Southall Tornado Open 1999
Southampton Tornado Open 1999
Northwich Tornado Open 1999
Bath Garlando Open 1999
Ipswich Tornado Open 1999
Stroud Garlando Open 2000
Hounslow Tornado Open 2000
Bath Garlando Open 2000
Ealing Tornado Open 2000
Bath Garlando Open 2000
Oxford Garlando Open 2000
Ealing Tornado Open 2000
Oxford Garlando Open 2000
Manchester Tornado Open 2000
Southall Tornado Open 2000
Kingston Tornado Open 2000
Nuneaton Garlando Open 2000
Southall Tornado Open 2000
Southall Tornado Open 2001
Hounslow Tornado Open 2001
Oxford Tornado Open 2001
Oxford Garlando Open 2001
Ealing Tornado Open 2001
Southall Tornado Open 2001
Southampton Tornado Open 2001
Belfast FAS Open 2001
Southall Tornado Open 2001
Hounslow Tornado Open 2002
Heathrow Tornado Open 2002
Southall Tornado Open 2002
Hounslow Tornado Open 2002
Vauxhall Tornado Open 2002
Oxford Garlando Open 2002
Northwich Tornado Open 2002
Southall Tornado Open 2002
Reading FAS Open 2002
Southall Tornado Open 2002
Nuneaton Garlando Open 2003
Bath Garlando Amateur Open 2003
Hounslow Tornado Open 2003
Bar Kick Rene Pierre Open 2003
Bath Garlando Open 2003
Southall Tornado Open 2003
Burnley Tornado Open 2003
Bristol Tornado Open 2003
Oxford Garlando Open 2003
Hayes Tornado Open 2003
Nuneaton Garlando Open 2003
Northwich Tornado Open 2003
Reading Garlando Open 2003
Southall Tornado Open 2003
Dublin Tornado Open 2004
Walsall Garlando Open 2004
Burnley Garlando Open 2004
Dublin Tornado Open 2004
Northwich Tornado Open 2004
Cambridge Garlando Open 2004
Bangor Garlando Open 2004
Hounslow Tornado Open 2004
Oxford Garlando Open 2004
Dublin Tornado Open 2004
Walsall Garlando Open 2004
Ealing Tornado Open 2004
Dublin Tornado Open 2004
Nuneaton Garlando Open 2004
Northwich Tornado Open 2004
Hounslow Tornado Open 2004
Reading Garlando Open 2004
Cambridge Garlando Open 2004
Heston Tornado Open 2004
Northwich Tornado Open 2005
Oxford Tornado Open 2005
Manchester Tornado Open 2005
Warwick Garlando Open 2005
Southampton Tornado Open 2005
Oxford Garlando Open 2005
Bristol Tornado Open 2005
Bar Kick Bonzini Open 2005
Gatwick Garlando Open 2005
Northwich Tornado Open 2005
Kingston Tornado Open 2005
Cambridge Eurosoccer Open 2006
Northwich Tornado Open 2006
*Warwick Garlando Open 2006
*Oxford Garlando Open 2006
Manchester Tornado Open 2006
Northwich Tornado Open 2006
Southall Tornado Open 2006
*Liverpool Garlando Open 2007
Southampton Tornado Open 2007
*Hereford Tornado Open 2007
*Warwick Garlando Open 2007
Bar Kick Bonzini Open 2007
*Woxford Garlando Open 2007
Bristol Multitable Open 2007
*Northwich Tornado UK Masters 2007
*Holywell Garlando Open I 2007
*Manchester Tornado Open 2007
*Liverpool Garlando Open 2008
*Holywell Garlando Open II 2008
*Oxford Garlando Open 2008
Hereford Tornado Open 2008
Northwich Tornado Open 2008
*Bolton Garlando Open 2008
*Holywell Garlando Open 2008
*Bolton Multitable UK Open 2008
Hinckley Multitable Open 2008
*Reading Garlando Open 2008
*Clevedon Tornado Open 2008
*Liverpool Garlando Open 2009
*Altrincham Tornado Open 2009
*Oxford Garlando Open 2009
*Nuneaton Multitable Open 2009
*Swansea Garlando Open 2009
Clevedon Tornado Open 2009
*Bar Kick Bonzini Open 2009
Oxford Multitable Open 2009
Reading Garlando Open 2009
Keele Garlando Open 2009
Liverpool Garlando Open 2010
Altrincham Tornado Open 2010
Warwick Garlando Open 2010
Penkridge Tornado Open 2010
Bar Kick Bonzini Open 2010
Darlington Garlando Open 2010
Manchester Fireball Open 2010
Oxford Multitable Open 2010
Liverpool Garlando Open 2011
Bath Garlando Open 2011
Kingston Tornado Open 2011
Manchester Fireball Open 2011
Clevedon Multitable Open 2011
Liverpool Garlando Open 2012
Coventry Garlando Open 2012
*Warwick Garlando Open 2012
*Liverpool Open 2013
*Warwick Garlando Open 2013
*Isha Tornado Open 2013
Capital Venue Open 2013
*Bar Kick Bonzini Open 2013
Isha UK Tornado Series July 2013
Leonhart Summer Open 2013
Isha UK Tornado Series August 2013
*Liverpool Multitable Open 2013
Last edited by robmoss2k on Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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robmoss2k
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:55 pm

EDIT: Link to rankings page in first post.
Last edited by robmoss2k on Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:58 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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robmoss2k
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:55 pm

EDIT: Link to rankings page in first post.
Last edited by robmoss2k on Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:58 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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shovie
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by shovie » Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:59 pm

You knows it.

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robmoss2k
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:30 pm

shovie wrote:You knows it.
That was delightfully inevitable.
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davez
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by davez » Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:21 pm

Bobby, awesome.

It's amazing how it has converged on something so sensible with only 5 tournaments of data! (Barring the Shovie anomaly of course).
Apostrophes never make plurals.Incorrect:Table's,Garlando's,DVD's,1900's.Correct:Tables,Garlandos,DVDs,1900s.

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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by shovie » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:56 pm

It'll iron itself out with more data, Dave!

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robmoss2k
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:16 am

More data on the way tomorrow. I've added in some 2006 stuff and Rob is a runaway number 1 already. It'll look a lot more like it should in a few days, although until I have every sanctioned tournament, it isn't worth much. Hopefully we have all the results - somewhere...
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Wed Sep 18, 2013 5:10 pm

EDIT: Link to rankings page in first post.
Last edited by robmoss2k on Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Wed Sep 18, 2013 5:11 pm

EDIT: Link to rankings page in first post.
Last edited by robmoss2k on Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Wed Sep 18, 2013 5:11 pm

EDIT: Link to rankings page in first post.
Last edited by robmoss2k on Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Wed Sep 18, 2013 5:12 pm

EDIT: Link to rankings page in first post.
Last edited by robmoss2k on Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by Graeme » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:56 pm

Do you include any over-time point depreciation?

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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:36 am

Graeme wrote:Do you include any over-time point depreciation?
None so far. It doesn't really fit with Elo to depreciate points. It's a measure of the probability that a player/team will win against another player/team.

That said, we don't use Swiss for Open events, so a lot of players get very few opportunities to score a decent number of points as they don't play the "big" players very often. Most of the games they play are in the divisional events which are weighted down (smaller K-value, as they do with things like the football, tennis and cricket Elo ratings).

Furthermore, our sport is unlike many others in that improvements or declines in performance levels happen more quickly than in most. So it's something I'm going to have a play around with.

Of course, SPORT files or full charts are what I need more than refinements to the rating process.
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by donna » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:43 pm

I like the way I'm 11th in 2-ball, but about 400th in most other things. Sounds about right...

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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by Bundy Volume 1 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:44 pm

robmoss2k wrote:Of course, SPORT files or full charts are what I need more than refinements to the rating process.
I lost a lot of the files from the early tournaments I did on my old laptop, with a got rid of ages ago.

But Boris should have the charts for every event going back to the dawn of the BFA.

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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by Boris » Thu Sep 19, 2013 3:35 pm

I've got charts in html format from Sport competitions but generally not Sport files as they don't work on Macs. It would be an impossible task to input the data manually.

Well done Bobby for achieving what no-one has previously achieved in over 12 years of debate - generating Elo rankings in the first place - the first hurdle Elo has had to overcome. Presumably they are dependent on importing from Sport so could only be used for competitions which use Sport, pretty much eliminating local events. Providing Sport is continued (or you have a way to import from FAST and can generate global rankings from the ITSF results database) this could provide an alternative ranking system. The second hurdle is keeping them maintained for 12 months.

The question would then be - is Elo really better than the system we've already got?

Let's suck it and see...

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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:34 pm

Boris wrote:I've got charts in html format from Sport competitions but generally not Sport files as they don't work on Macs. It would be an impossible task to input the data manually.

Well done Bobby for achieving what no-one has previously achieved in over 12 years of debate - generating Elo rankings in the first place - the first hurdle Elo has had to overcome. Presumably they are dependent on importing from Sport so could only be used for competitions which use Sport, pretty much eliminating local events. Providing Sport is continued (or you have a way to import from FAST and can generate global rankings from the ITSF results database) this could provide an alternative ranking system. The second hurdle is keeping them maintained for 12 months.

The question would then be - is Elo really better than the system we've already got?

Let's suck it and see...
I could quite easily import from FAST assuming that FAST collects and holds enough data - I don't see why it wouldn't. Is it just placings you've got Boris or do you have all the match results? If you have the results, I don't have to input them manually anywhere, I'll write something to import them.

The whole point of this little pet project isn't actually to provide Elo rankings. It's to be able to predict the results of matches and thus optimally schedule matches in a tournament. SPORT was great a few years ago, as was FAST, but they're both pretty long in the tooth. I want something better. I want something that will allow the tournament operator to run the tournament without being tied to a screen. There's no reason for there to be any real human intervention in running a tournament, and there's also no real reason to rely on people to guess which match has to be played before which other match, bearing in mind the millions of possibilities presenting themselves just at the start of OS and OD with ranked events running alongside them.

A decent tournament system can read matches out on its own, it doesn't need a person to do that. It can send text messages and/or e-mails to people telling them when their next expected match is. It can seed entries for events on its own. It can take player registrations on its own. If payment is made electronically, not only can it take entry fees on its own, but it can pay out prize money, too (albeit only electronically, probably via PayPal). It can track tournament costs and adjust prize funds accordingly. It can publish results on the fly. It can handle people taking food breaks and fag breaks.

Obviously there's a load of data we'll never see again, so we can't work out which players take the longest amount of time to play based on what's gone before, for example. But if I can get something working (and the above is just step 1 of about 50) then it could mean an end to tournaments being difficult to run and difficult to attend. That's the hope, anyway :)
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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by shovie » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:08 pm

84 Penelope Cruz 1522.056453
Gutted I wasn't the tournament she showed up at.

Amazing work Bobby!

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Re: The Elo has landed

Post by robmoss2k » Fri Sep 20, 2013 10:18 am

shovie wrote:
84 Penelope Cruz 1522.056453
Gutted I wasn't the tournament she showed up at.

Amazing work Bobby!
We probably had a joker at the desk... she turned up to the Northwich UK Masters Tornado tournament in 2007. She played with Boris in OD, losing to James Harrold and Steve Lyall, then beating Donna Walker and Sam Dawkins, Joe Latimer and Olga Lasecka and then Andrew Nubbert and Luke Ashley, before losing to Dave Bareham and Tom Burdett to take 7th; played with Tich in Mixed, beating Donna Walker and Sam Dawkins, losing to Joe Hamilton and Cai Mei Khoo, beating Boris and Caroline Wong, John Shovelton and Louise Brice, Joe Hamilton and Cai Mei Khoo, before YOU BEAT HER along with Olga Lasecka in the final; she beat Adam Bushell in SPS before losing to Les Jones and George Eid; and finally she played with Tich in Masters Doubles, beating Paul Kalsi and Dave Perrott before losing to John Shovelton and Rob Atha and then Martyn Harris and Boris Atha.

Any takers on a real name? Or is it just a coincidence?
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